Thursday 22 May 2014

Stop selling! Stocks are STILL your best bet

gold-bond-stocks-shirts-614xa
Bonds and gold have outperformed stocks. That can't last. And even if stock returns are subpar, they're the cleanest dirty shirt.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, Abbott Laboratories and AbbVie, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.
Even though the S&P 500 is not too far from its all-time high, it's been a reluctant rally. Investors are still nervous.
How do I know this? Well, the CNNMoney Fear & Greed Index continues to show signs of Fear even though the so-called "fear gauge" of the market, the VIX (VIX) is near a 52-week low. (Our index includes the VIX and six other indicators of market sentiment.)
feargreed0522
Click chart for detailed look at the Fear & Greed index.
And just look at the kind of financial assets that have done well this year. Fearful investors have bragging rights so far in 2014.
Gold has outperformed the broader market.
Utilities have outperformed the broader market.
Long-term Treasury yields have plunged.
This isn't sustainable. The only reason for gold, utilities and bonds to be better performers than the S&P 500 for a long stretch is if the economy is imploding. As in 2008. Or 1929. That's not happening.
Paging Men Without Hats! Investors are doing the Safety Dance! (We can leave your friends behind.)
Yes, stock returns are likely to be subpar for the next few years ... especially if you've grown accustomed to the insane gains we've had since the market bottomed in 2009. But so what?
Small returns for stocks are better than the zilch you'd earn from cash or in bonds after inflation. And gold? That may be a good hedge, but it should be only a small part of your portfolio, not your entire nest egg.
Most experts I spoke to say that stocks continue to be the best game in town. That isn't the same thing as saying that stocks are going to go up to the ionosphere like they did last year. But it's all relative.
Hank Smith, chief investment officer of Haverford Trust, uses a Margaret Thatcher-coined acronym to rationalize why investors should buy stocks over bonds or gold. TINA. There Is No Alternative.
I agree. To paraphrase Pimco's bond guru Bill Gross -- by way of Johnny Cash -- stocks are the cleanest dirty shirt.
So what should investors be doing now? Pulling money out of U.S. stock funds is probably not the wisest idea. It's a panic move.
Smith says investors need to stick with big blue chips. These companies can give you the potential for gains through earnings growth as well as income from sizable dividends. And you can build a diversified portfolio with this group as opposed to making a bet on just one sector.
Some examples of stocks Smith's firm owns are healthcare giants Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK); tech leaders Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC) and Cisco (CSCO); brand name stalwarts Coke (KO) and Pepsi (PEP); big banks Wells Fargo (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase(JPM); and energy titans Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP).
Ted Parrish, co-manager of the Henssler Equity fund, agrees that this is the time to flock to safe quality bets. And that doesn't have to mean boring utilities.
"We don't have a permanent pair of rose-colored glasses on, but this rotation into defensive assets is unsustainable," Parrish said. His fund also owns Wells Fargo. Other dividend-paying companies he likes are regional bank BB&T (BBT), Canadian financial firm Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS) and tech companies Applied Materials (AMAT), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Oracle (ORCL).
Parrish also thinks the bull run in bonds may soon come to an end. Remember how everyone thought that rates would rise earlier this year because the Federal Reserve was shifting away from quantitative easing? Well, the Fed hasn't deviated from that plan. But someone hasn't told the bond market apparently.
"It's weird to see bond yields go down when you know the Fed has to increase rates eventually. That day of reckoning is coming, and that's going to hurt bond prices and push yields higher," Parrish said.
It makes sense. Investors have flocked to the types of things that do well if you want to go hide in a bunker and wait for economic Armageddon.
But the last few jobs reports are hinting at slow and steady (if not spectacular) growth in the economy. Sure, I've been lamenting for years about how the recovery is low and slow. My belovedbarbecue recovery metaphor. But at least it is a recovery.
That spells trouble ahead for bonds and utilities, which are basically bond proxies thanks to their large dividend yields.
"In an improving economy, rates should normalize and bonds and utilities will underperform again," says Bernie Williams, chief investment officer of USAA Investment Solutions ... and not the former New York Yankee outfielder.
Once again, this does NOT mean that stocks are going to have a smooth ride up. The bumpy ride we've had this year will likely continue. And don't get greedy and expect another year like last year. Those are the exceptions. Not the rule.
"I've been telling clients all year we are not getting 30%+ returns again, but I don't expect the S&P 500 to fall apart either. There is just going to be some gut-wrenching volatility," said John Norris, head of wealth management at Oakworth Capital Bank.
Norris adds that as long as investors can withstand the occasional turmoil and accept the fact that normal returns are in the single digits, then there's absolutely no reason to bail on stocks for the perceived safety of fixed income.
"Nobody likes losing money. But at the same time, even my most risk averse investors don't plan on dying in the next three months," Norris said. "If you have a 20-year window, stocks are not going to underperform bonds."

Wednesday 14 May 2014

World finance leaders issue sober assessment






Associated Press 




International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, left, talks with IMFC Chair Tharman Shanmugaratnam during the World Bank IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Saturday, April 20, 2013. (AP Photo/Molly Riley)
.
View gallery

  • .
  • .
  • .


World finance leaders issue sober assessment
Associated Press By MARTIN CRUTSINGER and HARRY DUNPHY
April 20, 2013 6:26 PM
 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, left, talks with IMFC Chair Tharman Shanmugaratnam during the World Bank IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, Saturday, April 20, 2013. (AP Photo/Molly Riley)
.
View gallery

.

.

.

WASHINGTON (AP) — World finance leaders issued a somber assessment on Saturday of the global economy, saying the recovery remains uneven with growth and jobs in short supply.

The steering committee for the 188-nation International Monetary Fund issued a final communique that called for decisive action to bolster growth. However, the major economies remained at odds over the best mix of policies to pursue.

"An uneven recovery is emerging but growth and job creation are still too weak. New risks are arising while several old risks remain," the IMF group said.

"The commodity that is in shorter supply now is confidence," Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the chairman of the IMF panel and Singapore's finance minister, told reporters. "We need to regenerate optimism and confidence."

The World Bank announced that its policy committee had approved a proposal to establish a goal of eliminating extreme poverty, defined as living on less than $1.25 per day, by 2030. It is estimated that there are still 1.2 billion people living in extreme poverty with sub-Saharan Africa accounting for more than one-third of the world's extreme poor.

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim called this goal "an historic moment" for the world. "We are no longer dreaming of a world without poverty. We have set an expiration date," Kim told reporters at a closing news conference.

View galleryWorld Bank President Jim Yong Kim arrives for the International …
World Bank President Jim Yong Kim arrives for the International Monetary Fund Governors family photo …
Emma Seery, a spokesperson for Oxfam, the anti-poverty group, said while the World Bank's target was welcome "we are concerned that it will duck the tough choices needed to reach it."

The spring meetings of IMF and its sister lending agency, the World Bank, on Saturday followed two days of discussions among finance leaders of the Group of 20 nations, composed of traditional powers such as the United States, Japan and Germany and fast-growing developing nations such as China, Brazil and India.

The finance leaders sought to project an air of cooperation even though they were unable to resolve sharp differences that have risen to the surface following an initially botched bailout of Cyprus in March. The banking troubles in the small Mediterranean island country renewed fears that a prolonged European debt crisis still poses significant risks to the global economy.

The United States was represented at the finance meetings by Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The administration pushed for European nations to moderate their austerity programs of spending cuts and tax increases in favor of more stimulus to bolster growth and combat painfully high unemployment in countries such as Spain and Greece.

"'Strengthening global demand is imperative and must be at the top of our agenda," Lew said in his remarks to the IMF. "Stronger demand in Europe is critical to growth."

View galleryJapan's Finance Minister Taro Aso, right, talks to …
Japan's Finance Minister Taro Aso, right, talks to World Bank President Jim Yong Kim before the Inte …
But this push was met with resistance from countries such as Germany and Britain, which believe that heavily indebted European nations must reduce their deficits to give markets confidence and keep government borrowing costs low.

In the end, the finance leaders sought to bridge the differences by issuing economic blueprints that left room for both the growth and austerity camps to claim victory.

Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup, encompassing the 17 finance ministers whose countries use the euro currency, told reporters Saturday said that European nations needed to keep pushing to reduce huge budget deficits but "we can and will adjust" the speed that the deficit cuts are implemented to take into account economic conditions.

The G-20 nations did reject proposals to issue hard targets for reducing budget deficits, a victory for the United States and Japan, who had argued for more flexibility.

The G-20 joint statement singled out the recent aggressive credit-easing moves pushed by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, saying they were intended to stop prolonged deflation and support domestic demand.

View galleryInternational Monetary Fund Governors pose for a group …
International Monetary Fund Governors pose for a group photo during the World Bank IMF Spring Meetin …
Those comments were viewed as giving a green light to Japan's program, which has driven the value of the yen down by more than 20 percent against the dollar since October. That sizable decline has raised concerns among U.S. manufacturing companies that Japan's real goal is not to boost growth through increasing domestic demand but to weaken the yen as a way to gain trade advantages.

To address those concerns, the G-20 did repeat language it used in February that all countries should not use their currency as a trade weapon and guard against policies that could trigger currency wars.

Japanese officials said they were pleased with the support they had received at the Washington meetings for their aggressive efforts to lift the world's third largest economy out of a two-decade slump. "There has been international understanding" of our efforts, Huruhiko Kuroda, head of the Bank of Japan, told reporters.

Lew said in his IMF remarks that the Obama administration would keep working to gain approval of budget legislation that has been stalled for nearly three years in Congress. The congressional approval is the last major roadblock to implementing an overhaul of the IMF's governing structure to give more power to developing nations. The change is expected to shift two seats on the IMF's 24-member executive board from Western Europe to developing countries.

Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega blasted both the United States and Europe for the delay.

"America is unable and Europe is unwilling to follow through with agreed reforms," he said Saturday in his remarks to the IMF. "The institution's major shareholders are gambling ... with the IMF's legitimacy and credibility."

Friday 7 March 2014

Belize Politics Go International

Original Article
Rarely does political drama play out on an international stage, and it is usually relegated to
small, local elections that only the residents of some small town or city would be interested in.
Recently Las Vegas and one of it's residents has been thrust into the international spotlight
through the internet and social media outlets like Facebook, Twitter and various blogs. Lord Neil
B Gibson, the Las Vegas based businessman, developer and international finance figure has
rocketed into the fiery discussions that are taking place in the country of Belize, specifically
regarding an election for the position of Standard Bearer in the Cayo South Constituency Area.
Social media, news outlets and radio have been awash with discussion regarding the election of
businessman Ralph Huang to this position, and conspiracy theories abound as to the
connection he has to Lord Neil B Gibson. Accusations of corruption have already been made
only days after the election from the opposing party, and a large-scale smear campaign has
begun to play out on the global stage with regards to Mr. Huang, Mr. Gibson and the future of
Belizian governmental positions.
Interesting spins on the situation are being presented through such media outlets as Channel 5
Belize, 7 News Belize and the associated Youtube Channels of each station. Many local blogs
have also taken to the internet in an attempt to drum up the suspects of corruption with regards
to the relationships that Lord Neil B Gibson has with both Huang and other Belizian
governmental officials. The majority of the coverage centers around the fact that Mr. Huang has
admitted that Gibson both contributed to his campaign and also supported his election. The
coverage being presented is amaturish at best in it's attempts to stir up controversy, as the
press releases, posts and announcements that can be found both on the official business
websites of Neil Gibson as well as his business websites and social media have never
attempted to make even the slightest hiding of his contributions and support. Gibson went as far
as to create professional videos distributed on Youtube endorsing Huang and touching on the
reasons he believes Huang was right for the job. Gibson has also shown a long track record of
complete transparency with regard to his interest in Belizian development projects, going as far
as to publicly promote the ongoing developments attached to each potential project in Belize on
his network or websites and press.
The levels of transparency with regard to Lord Neil B Gibson's interests in Belize are far beyond
those typically put forth by any business entity. A quick perusal of the news sections of his
websites show postings regarding Belizian development interests, with postings on the subject
going back to October of 2013. Additionally, completely transparent postings on the subject of
endorsements and campaign contributions go back to early January as seen here: http://
www.lordneilgibson.com/lnbg-llc-endorses-huang/
All of the websites and Youtube videos across Gibson's network openly discuss the subject of
his endorsement of Huang, and never is their relationship attempted to be covered up in any
regard. So the question of corruption should be addressed, except possibly it should be directed
at other entities aside from Lord Neil Gibson and Ralph Huang. Possibly we should be looking
into why media outlets and bloggers in Belize are so aggressively attempting to make the
relationship between two businessmen into an issue, when the entire situation played out on the
world stage through the internet in a completely documented manner. If there were any issue
that should be covered up involving Lord Neil Gibson and Belizian governmental officials, then
why would they be posing for pictures together that are widely distributed on the internet? If
there were cover-ups happening, then why is the credited sources of all of the photographs that
are being distributed in association to the "scandal" stories of Gibson posing with Belizian
politicians being taken directly from Gibson's websites? If there was a cover-up happening,
wouldn't the transparency of the relationships actually be covered up by the parties involved?
Corruption happens in government all the time, and Belize is no stranger to it. Corruption is bad
for all people who are touched by it, and should be exposed at all costs. However, the definition
of corruption is not about a business man contributing to another business man's campaign to
run for office, and the fact that one business man lives in Las Vegas and the other in Belize is
also not part of the definition. Corruption is about a lack of transparency as to the source of
money or influence with regards to projects. Perhaps we should consider the sources of the
smear campaign against Gibson, and how they are attempting to twist facts to create doubts at
to his motivations. Perhaps it is not Gibson and Huang who should be mentioned with regard to
transparency as far as political funding sources....perhaps they should be used as a model for
the necessary change.

Friday 21 February 2014

Sunday 16 February 2014

INTERNET TROLL ATTACKS LORD GIBSON

News Business & Finance Industry
Lord Neil Gibson Battles Anonymous Internet Troll


February 14, 2014
The internet and Google have long been a source for potential exploitation of search engine algorithms in order to slander individuals, playing on the fact that Google is not an actual news source but instead is simply a list of categorized information about a topic. Because it has grown to become essentially a source for people to find out information on any topic, and is viewed by most people as the starting point for research, those who wish to misinform others about certain subjects know all too well that creating a search engine friendly internet space loaded with false information about a subject is an easy method to sway public opinion. Because the standard setup of Google listings involves a title and a short snippit from the article itself, many people feel no need to actually move past the listings themselves, and feel they can get all the information they need straight from the search page. If you were to Google someone's name as a source of research on them as a person, it is quite simple for someone with bad intentions to sway public opinion by simply creating many, many internet posts that state patently false information about the person. What is especially interesting about this phenomenon is that there is absolutely no rules regarding truthfulness in the posted pieces, as they are not necessarily posted within legitimate news spaces, or anywhere that is regulated in any way. To make matters worse, those adopting this type of attack against others have the ability to hide behind the "free speech" argument which protects them from prosecution as the slanderous information can be called "opinion." Lord Neil Gibson of Las Vegas knows this all too well, and continues to deal with an unfortunate situation that has caused damage through false information to his name that has been ongoing for years.

Lord Neil Benjamin Gibson is a Las Vegas based business man who operates several diversified entities involved in a wide range of capacities involving international investment, development, green energy and healthcare projects. In many cases the deals that are struck between his companies and outside parties are done on trust, reputation and limited access to research into past projects. Many business people who were and are involved with Neil Gibson will use Google to look into his background, past business dealings and reputation in order to make their decisions to move forward. He was easily damaged by a person who understood how to manipulate internet posts and search engines, one who wanted false information to be spread about him, and one who wanted to harm future business deals that Gibson was structuring through negative perception of him as a person.

Lord Neil Gibson followed the standard protocols that most business people would immediately gravitate to in order to reclaim his reputation from those attempting to slander him, and he filed lawsuits and motions that would force the attacker to remove the posts that were created under his name. Although the obvious outcome of the removal of untrue information within spaces that the attacker admittedly controlled was finalized through legal action, the problem remains to this day that the attacker controls spaces that are not under his name, or are controlled by him from afar. The reputation slander continued after the judgement against the attacker was enforced, and Mr. Gibson found the posts spreading negative and false information about him coming from anonymous sources that could not be tied directly to the attacker. This unfortunate situation shows the weaknesses of Google as an information source, and also illustrates how dangerous it is to not fully investigate the source of "news" that is found online.

Lord Neil Gibson continues to take steps to counter the false information that is on the internet and which is specifically set up to show up in Google searches for his name, and continues to be forced to counteract the spread of misinformation regarding him as a person. The anonymous attacker remains at large.

Verified information about www.lordneilbenjamingibson.com . and his companies can be found at www.lordneilgibson.com
lordneilbenjamingibson.blogspot.com

Tammy Lier Gibson with Evander Holyfield and Peter Lik